2024 Commentaries
This is why we hold the blues!!
The Fed, the BoJ, payrolls, the US presidential election race, tech earnings, and the escalation in the Middle East have all conspired to create some heavy derisking. Volatility was low, and complacency was high heading into the mid-July all-time highs for spoos. And what precisely led to this spiky exodus from crowded carry positions since […]
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It's not rocket science
Over the last three weeks, the odds of a Trump victory have jumped markedly. Biden’s debate performance, Trump’s judicial wins, and the awful events in Bethel Park last Saturday have all contributed to the shift. And while other macro forces such as softer inflation and unemployment data have surely been at work, the knee-jerk market […]
From the vault: 10-Jan-2017
Long Streetsmarts, Short Booksmarts: 10-Jan-2017 Over the last two months my market discussions with clients and colleagues have centered exclusively on the expectations for Trump economic policies – specifically fiscal policy, regulatory policy, immigration policy, trade policy, and monetary policy. And in discussing each of these, it is worth recalling that a few days after […]
Not every company gets a participation trophy - July 3, 2024
Today, I would like to address a topic that many pundits have deemed a negative risk factor for overall equity market performance: the issue of concentration. For the record, I discussed this topic last week in a CNBC segment, which you can access here. In a nutshell, the idea that high levels of concentration in […]
For financial markets, the election is primarily about differences in regulatory policy - June 18, 2024
With less than 140 days to go until the US Presidential election, the policy differences between Trump and Biden are becoming a key focus for financial markets. Looking back to 2016, I wrote a handful of notes on the likely market impact from Trump vs. Clinton policy differences with far less available information. This time, […]